Frigid weather drives highest energy demand of the winter so far
The sub-freezing overnight low temperatures in January led to the highest energy demand so far this winter as electric heaters across Eugene struggle to keep homes and businesses warm.
Demand for electricity in EWEB's service territory hit this winter’s the highest levels yet on the morning of Tuesday, Jan. 28 at 8 a.m., when overall demand hit 475 megawatts. That day, low temperatures skimmed 20 degrees F in Eugene.
That level surpassed the demand on Monday, Jan. 27, when demand hit 469 megawatts, even though Mondays often bring higher demand as managers of commercial buildings reheat them after turning down thermostats over the weekend.
Surging electricity demand during this cold snap is a powerful reminder that in the Pacific Northwest, when temperatures fall, demand for electricity rises. In EWEB’s service territory, winter electricity demand surpasses summer demand because roughly three-quarters of homes have electric heating, while air conditioning is less common.
This season’s peak winter demand is higher than during last year’s notorious ice storm, when demand for EWEB’s electricity peaked at 448 megawatts on Jan. 12, 2024. During the ice storm, the power outages caused by the storm’s damage to EWEB’s electric distribution counteracted some of temperature-induced demand.
Peaks in the mid-400s are high, but still within normal levels for cold winter days. In the last five years, the highest electricity demand occurred on Feb. 23, 2022, when demand hit 483 megawatts at 8 a.m. That day, the overnight low temperature descended to 22 degrees.
But even that level of demand is well below EWEB’s all-time record, which took place on Dec. 9, 2013, when temperatures plummeted to -10 degrees F. That morning at 9 a.m., EWEB customers were consuming 557 megawatts of electricity, as heaters worked full-bore to keep homes warm.
“This cold spell – and every cold spell, including last year’s ice storm – shows us the inextricable link between weather and both energy demand and supply,” said Brian Booth, EWEB’s chief energy resources officer. “EWEB’s energy team is always assessing electricity demand and supply as we look ahead hours, days, weeks, months, years and decades. Our job is to keep the power flowing, no matter what Mother Nature throws at us.”
In the years ahead, as more and more customers electrify their heating systems, demand for electricity during cold snaps will only grow. EWEB predicts that energy demand will rise by 8% over the next decade, as more and more customers swap out their gas-powered cars for electric vehicles, and as industrial demand rises.
“These cold events test the reliability of our region’s energy supply,” Booth said. “To maintain the momentum of our region’s transition from burning coal and gas to relying on clean electricity, we need to keep that electricity reliable, whatever it takes. Without reliable electricity, people won’t switch to electric vehicles or electric heat pumps because of fear the power will go out when they need it.”
EWEB is studying options to bolster future energy supply.
To ensure EWEB continues to have a reliable, affordable and environmentally responsible supply of electricity for decades to come, the customer-owned utility conducts long-term energy supply planning.
In 2023, EWEB published its first such study in a decade. EWEB concluded that the foundation of EWEB’s energy supply should continue to be the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), a federal agency that sells power from dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. But BPA is changing the energy “products” that it offers, and EWEB will need to choose a new one in 2025.
So, for the last year, EWEB has conducted analysis to see which of the new products best meets the utility’s energy needs. Regardless of which product EWEB chooses, the utility will use a combination of its own resources and BPA energy product to meet customers’ needs and contribute towards overall grid reliability.
The crux of the decision comes down to who will meet the energy needs of EWEB’s customers on the highest demand days for the next 20 years. Those peak demand days typically coincide with the coldest days of the year.
BPA offers different levels of service to utilities like EWEB. In essence, EWEB must choose how it will meet peak demand: The utility can either take a do-it-yourself approach or rely on BPA.
One option is for EWEB to pay BPA a premium to always meet EWEB’s peak demand, no matter how high it gets. The other option is for EWEB to continue meet its own peaks, while paying a lower price for the other energy that BPA sells.
“Hydropower from BPA is the foundation of our energy supply portfolio and will continue to be as long as BPA maintains its position as a cost-effective provider of carbon-free power from the federal hydropower system,” said Ben Ulrich, the lead energy resource analyst who is overseeing the study of the BPA product options. “But we have a nuanced, difficult choice to make about how we will rely on BPA to help provide electricity for customers during those moments of extremely high demand.”
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